Trump Approval Hits 33% Low: What It Means for Markets & Midterms

Trump’s approval rating has hit a second-term low of 33% in multiple polls this summer. Here’s what’s driving the decline, how it compares historically, and what it could mean for markets and the 2026 midterms.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s approval rating has hit 33% in multiple independent polls this summer, including Reuters/Ipsos, The Economist/YouGov, and AP-NORC — a new low for his second term.
• The decline has been steep: Reuters/Ipsos polling shows a 14-point slide from 47% at the start of his second term to 33% now, with disapproval climbing from 41% to 65%.
• Polling averages remain somewhat higher than the lowest individual polls — the Decision Desk HQ average stood at 39.2%, illustrating the spread between different methodologies.
• The unpopular Iran conflict is a major drag: only 31% of Americans support continued U.S. military action, and 83% believe the conflict will continue for an extended period.
• Historical comparison is unfavorable: Trump’s current numbers trail his own first-term approval at the same point (41% in 2018) and are also below Biden’s comparable second-year approval (40% in August 2022).

Breaking Down the Numbers

Multiple independent polling organizations have converged on a similar, unflattering picture of President Trump’s standing heading into the 2026 midterms:

• Reuters/Ipsos: 33% approval, 65% disapproval (held steady across two consecutive surveys in mid-to-late August)
• The Economist/YouGov: 33% approval, a new low for that poll as of late August
• AP-NORC: 33% approval in a late-July survey — three points below Biden’s July 2022 approval and eight points below Trump’s own first-term July numbers
• Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) average: 39.2%, the second-lowest since May, with 57.5% disapproving

The gap between the lowest individual polls (33%) and the polling average (around 39%) is a useful reminder for anyone tracking this story: individual polls can diverge meaningfully from methodology to methodology, and averages tend to smooth out the noise. Still, the consistent direction across virtually every major pollster — down, not up — is the more important signal than any single data point.

The Trajectory Matters as Much as the Level

According to Reuters/Ipsos tracking, Trump’s approval has fallen 14 points since the start of his second term, from 47% down to 33%, while disapproval has climbed 24 points, from 41% to 65%. That’s a significant and sustained erosion, not a single bad news cycle.

What’s Driving the Decline?

1. The Iran Conflict

An unpopular and prolonged U.S. military engagement with Iran is a significant drag on approval numbers:

• Only 31% of Americans support continued U.S. military action in Iran, down from 34% earlier in the summer and 37% in March.
• 83% of Americans believe the conflict will continue “for an extended period,” up from 80% earlier in the month — suggesting fatigue is building rather than easing.
• Approval of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict specifically has declined even among Republicans, dropping from 71% to 61% in recent tracking, with just 48% of Republicans saying the U.S. should continue military action.

2. Economic Concerns

Polling context around the approval decline points to persistent economic anxiety among Americans as a contributing factor, compounding the foreign policy drag.

3. Historical Second-Term Pattern

Trump’s approval trajectory now trails not just his own first term, but also recent predecessors at comparable points:

President	Approval at Comparable Point	Source
Trump (2026, second term)	33%	Reuters/Ipsos
Trump (2018, first term, midterm year)	41%	Reuters/Ipsos
Biden (August 2022)	40%	Reuters/Ipsos

Historical Context: What Happened Last Time Approval Was This Low Before a Midterm?

In the 2018 midterms — when Trump’s approval stood around 41%, notably higher than his current 33% — Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives, though the party gained two Senate seats. With his current approval running meaningfully below that benchmark, political analysts and Republican strategists are expressing heightened concern about the party’s ability to defend its congressional majorities in 2026.

Market and Investment Implications

Political Risk and Sector Exposure

Historically, periods of declining presidential approval heading into a midterm election can correlate with:

• Increased policy uncertainty premium in markets, particularly for sectors sensitive to potential legislative gridlock or shifts in regulatory posture.
• Elevated volatility in sectors tied to trade and foreign policy, given the Iran conflict’s direct role in the approval decline.
• Currency and bond market sensitivity to shifting expectations about fiscal policy continuity, particularly if control of Congress appears increasingly contested.

What History Suggests About Midterm-Year Market Performance

Markets have historically shown resilience through midterm election cycles regardless of which party is expected to gain seats, often pricing in political uncertainty well ahead of the actual vote. That said, sectors with direct regulatory or fiscal exposure — energy, defense, financial services, and healthcare — tend to see the most direct repricing around shifting congressional control expectations.

Actionable Takeaways for Investors and Political Observers

• Don’t overreact to a single poll. The spread between individual polls (33%) and polling averages (around 39%) illustrates why tracking multiple pollsters and trend direction matters more than any single headline number.
• Watch the Iran conflict closely as a specific, trackable driver of both approval numbers and potential market volatility — any de-escalation or further escalation is likely to move both simultaneously.
• Consider portfolio hedging strategies around sectors with direct regulatory exposure if you expect a competitive midterm environment to increase legislative gridlock risk.
• Track generic congressional ballot polling alongside presidential approval, as it offers a more direct read on likely House and Senate outcomes than approval ratings alone.
• Maintain a diversified portfolio rather than making concentrated bets based on political forecasting, given the inherent uncertainty in translating approval polling into specific electoral or market outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Trump’s current approval rating? Multiple polls, including Reuters/Ipsos, The Economist/YouGov, and AP-NORC, have shown Trump’s approval rating at 33% as of late August 2026, while broader polling averages like Decision Desk HQ’s show a somewhat higher figure around 39%, reflecting the spread across different polling methodologies.

Why has Trump’s approval rating declined so much in 2026? Polling data points to an unpopular and prolonged U.S. military conflict with Iran, with only 31% of Americans supporting continued military action, alongside broader economic concerns, as significant contributing factors to the decline from 47% approval at the start of his second term to 33% now.

How might low presidential approval affect the stock market ahead of the midterms? Markets have historically shown general resilience through midterm election cycles, but sectors with direct regulatory or fiscal policy exposure — such as energy, defense, financial services, and healthcare — tend to experience more direct volatility around shifting expectations for congressional control, so investors may want to monitor generic ballot polling alongside approval ratings.